MVN - Most Valuable Network

Spring Training Invites

Here’s the list, courtesy of the ever-reliable Pete Abraham:

INF Andy Cannizaro, C Francisco Cervelli, INF Angel Chavez, C Raul Chavez, RHP Tyler Clippard, C Ben Davis, INF Eric Duncan

OF Brett Gardner, RHP Phil Hughes, RHP Steven Jackson, LHP Ben Kozlowski, INF Ramiro Pena, RHP Ross Ohlendorf, C Peter Pilittere

C Todd Pratt, C Omir Santos, OF Jose Tabata, INF Marcos Vechionacci, RHP Kevin Whelan, RHP Steven White

As has been mentioned in the comments, I’m glad to see Todd Pratt on the list. He may be old, and he may not be very good, but he’s a veteran that serves as insurance if Nieves can’t handle it. Pratt can’t be any worse than Kelly Stinnett.

The most notable omission here is J.B. Cox. Last I heard, he was pulled from the Arizona Fall League roster because of an elbow injury sustained pitching for Team USA. There hasn’t been anything on him since, which is kind of scary. My guess, by deduction, is that J.B. will have the 40th slot on the Yanks 40-man roster.

Nelson Retires a Yankee

From YES Network:

The New York Yankees announced that right-handed pitcher Jeff Nelson - who earlier Friday was signed by the Yankees and invited to Spring Training - has announced his retirement.

It’s tough to ignore Nelson’s contributions to our championship run of the late ’90s. He and Mike Stanton were the last really reliable bridge to Mariano Rivera. But, those were the days when Torre trusted more than two guys in his bullpen, so he didn’t completely burn out his best setup men.

I’m rather curious about the Spring Training invite. Why, if he was to pull a sign-and-retire move, would he be invited? A formality, maybe?

Yanks looking great after productive off-season

Once upon a time, Yankee fans were optimistic. Every year was our year, we once believed. But when Luis Gonzalez’s lucky hit fell out of the reach of an inexplicably drawn-in infield on a November night in 2001, every year became someone else’s year, and Yankee fans responded with pessimism.

With last year’s disastrous showing against a Detroit Tigers team that, frankly, wasn’t all that good, the Yankees had seemingly hit an all-time low. An overpaid bunch of players led by an aging and highly faulty pitching staff had led many Yankee fans to despair. Now, with spring training a few short weeks away, Yankee fans are even more pessimistic than usual. In fact, one of own commenters, in what I hope was a fit of delusion, predicted a fourth place finish for the Bombers in 2007.

Fourth place! Behind the pitching-starved Devil Rays. Can you believe that? What bothers me, though, isn’t this one person’s lack of faith in the Yankees. On Yankee blog after Yankee blog, I see a similar attitude. Yankee fans think their team is terrible. Frankly, this is an attitude I used to associate with Red Sox and Mets fans. No offense, if you’re a fan of one of those teams, but that was the prevalent attitude coming out of Shea Stadium or Fenway for much of the 1990s.

Let’s take a look at how last season ended. In 2006, the Yankees finished 11 games ahead of the third-place Red Sox. At 97-65, the Yankees were the winningest team in the Major Leagues. While their Pythagorean Record projected to 95-67, the Red Sox, the team many believe to be the Yanks’ main competitors, should have been 81-81. They were a .500 team while the Yankees were close to a .600 team!

Do you still think fourth place sounds reasonable? The Sox would have to gain nearly 11 actual games on the Yanks and 14 Pythagorean games. Plus — plus — the Yankees would have to fall behind the Blue Jays and the Devil Rays all while sporting what many consider to be the best offense in the Majors and an above-average pitching rotation. This picture doesn’t look so bad after all.

Looking at the lineup, we see that the Yankees are bringing back their top 8 productive hitters. Here’s the projected Opening Day lineup, more or less:

Damon CF
Jeter SS
Abreu RF
Rodriguez 3B
Giambi DH
Posada C
Matsui LF
Cano 2B
Mientkiewicz1B

In all likelihood, Posada and Matsui will flip positions, but I went with this lineup to try to break up the lefty-righty combinations. No matter how you slice and dice it, this is a mighty impressive lineup. In fact, using season totals from 2006, David Pinto’s Lineup Analysis tool projects no fewer than 6.13 runs per game from this lineup. That’s utterly sick. While that may be an expectation that the Yanks won’t meet, even a ten percent decline from the minimum projection leaves the Yanks scoring 5.5 runs per game.

Where many people see pain is on the bench, but things really aren’t so bad. First, the Yankees have arguably the best fourth outfielder in the game in Melky Cabrera. On any other team, this guy would be starting. And while I’m not sure if Melky’s ceiling is much higher than what we saw last year, he’s an excellent threat off the bench and a stellar defensive outfielder. They have Josh Phelps, Andy Phillips, Miguel Cairo and either Raul Chavez or Wil Nieves as the back-up catcher. It’s this back-up catcher situation that has left some folks — like Pinstripe Alley’s John Amato — ridiculously saying that the Yanks are bad year.

Come on, folks. We’re talking about a back-up catcher. Our archrivals up I-95 had a back-up catcher who hit .193/.261/.342. That’s terrible, and you’re going to try to convince me that because the Yanks don’t have some sort of name in that spot that they’re bad. Well, even Joe Girardi was pretty bad during his final years in the Bronx, and no one was complaining them. But hey, I say sarcastically, he was a winner. Perspective, people. It’s very important here.

Moving into the bullpen, some fans have expressed their concern that the Yankees will not be able to replicate the numbers of the third starters the Yankees are missing. Now, that would be a concern if we were talking about three good pitchers. But we’re talking about Randy Johnson, Jaret Wright and some other fifth starter. Last season, Yankees starters not named Mike Mussina or Chien-Ming Wang went a combined 40-29 with a 5.31 ERA in 519 innings. They gave up 41 more hits than innings pitched and pretty much were terrible. Among the luminaries making starts for the Yankees last year were Sean Henn, Shawn Chacon, Sidney Ponson, Kris Wilson and Aaron Small.

Oof.

This year, the Yanks head into the season with a projected starting rotation as follows:
Chien-Ming Wang
Andy Pettitte
Mike Mussina
Carl Pavano
Kei Igawa
Humberto Sanchez/Darrel Rasner/Jeff Karstens/Philip Hughes

Now, while Igawa is an unproven commodity and Carl Pavano is, well, the Rajah of Rehab, I have to err on the side of optimism here. First, Pavano is pitching basically for his career. He’s only 31; he’s refocused this off-season, according to numerous published reports; and he knows that if he fails again this year, his baseball career is in shambles. Second, Igawa is a wild card. The Red Sox are relying on Daisuke Matsuzaka to be an ace. Those are high expectations for anyone, let along a pitcher who has never thrown a pitch in the Major Leagues. On the other hand, Igawa just has to be a fourth or fifth starter on a team that could score six runs a game. I’ll take those odds.

And look at that list of potential back-up starters should someone go down. That’s a mighty impressive array of arms, and that list doesn’t even consider the wildest of wild cards: Roger Clemens. But we’ll save that speculation for later (or check out Ian’s latest piece for more news on the Rocket).

The bullpen now features Mariano Rivera, Kyle Farnsworth, Scott Proctor, Luis Vizcaino, Chris Britton, Mike Myers and someone else. Wow. That’s not bad.

All of a sudden, we’ve filled out the Yankees roster, and I would put my money on this team to, once again, win the AL East.

Where is this doom-and-gloom coming from? Does it come from bandwagon fans who missed the 1990s dynasty and want to see some wins? Does it come from people not used to losing in October who do not understand the crap-shoot nature of the playoffs?

Whatever its source, it should end today. The Yankees are a very good team with a very smart General Manager. They have arguably a better team this year than last with a lower payroll and a vastly improved farm system. You can’t say about too many teams coming off a 97-win season. So let’s enjoy it. Let’s stop predicting fourth places and stop criticizing Brian Cashman for mailing it in this off-season.

The Yankees are very good, and the Yankees will win. That’s the proper attitude.

Pettitte To Rocket: Join Me in Pinstripes

The inevitable has been realized. Earlier today, Andy Pettitte was re-introduced as a New York Yankee. During the press conference, Pettitte expressed that he wants Roger Clemens to rejoin the Yankees in 2007. When asked about Clemens joining the Yankees Pettitte responded, “Does he know that I would love that? Of course”. This development is hardly a surprise to many that have followed the whispers surrounding Pettitte’s return to the Bronx, most assumed that Clemens was soon to follow Pettitte back in pinstripes. Unfortunately, Pettitte believes reporting to “Spring Training would probably be out” of the question for Clemens.

The thought process involved with bringing Clemens back to New York is all too convoluted for my tastes. Personally, I was insulted when Clemens left the Yankees for the Astros, months after he led everyone to believe he pitched his last game in the big leagues. He just seems like a big fake, and extremely narcissistic with an out of control ego. Just look at the contract he signed last year with Houston, totalling $22,000,022, to mirror his uniform number of 22, and it was also no coincidence his return was on June 22. Why add another ego to this team? I’m not sure how I’d react to Clemens coming back.

There’s so many questions you have to mull over about a possible Clemens return. Why should Clemens get an exception to come back in June, four months later than everyone else? Why should the Yankees allow Clemens to leave the team on road trips to spend time with his family, unlike everyone else? How much money would it cost? What if Clemens can’t work the kinks out of his game until the All-Star break? What if Clemens’ recent success is a product of being in the NL?

Rather than bringing back Clemens in June, the Yankees should bring up Philip Hughes. A (all signs pointing towards) dominant pitcher without all of the questions and dollar signs that a Clemens return would bring.